Liberals Narrow Gap as Tories Ebb in Ontario & Falter in Quebec

 

[OTTAWA – October 6, 2008] – The Liberals have narrowed the gap with the Conservatives nationally on the strength of a resurgence in Ontario and east, and the Conservatives continuing weakness in Quebec. The latest EKOS tracking poll shows the Liberals seven percentage points behind the Conservatives nationally – the narrowest gap yet in our election polling.

 

“The Conservatives appear to have fallen right out of the race in Quebec, said EKOS President Frank Graves. “They can no longer be confident that they can hang on to all the gains they made there in the 2006 election.”

 

Meanwhile, there has been a see-saw battle in Ontario in the last ten days, with the Liberals pulling abreast of the Conservatives, then falling back again. “They are now in a statistical dead heat,” he said. “Interestingly the Liberals have accomplished this feat even though the Greens and New Democrats are also running quite strongly in the province – at 15% and 20% respectively.”

 

The Liberals may also be establishing themselves in second place in Quebec and in the lead in the Atlantic provinces, though the number of respondents in Atlantic Canada is small, and results there must be treated with caution.

 

“What we have here potentially is a re-emergence of the stark East-West divide in Canadian politics, with the Conservatives driven back on their Western base.”

 

“Some traditional patterns in the support of the two leading parties have also begun to re-assert themselves,” said Graves. “The Conservatives now have a commanding lead over all the other parties among men, but are barely ahead of the Liberals among women.”

 

Despite these recent shifts, which could make the difference between majority and minority for the Conservatives, most voters say they have their minds made up. Green Party voters are somewhat less firm in their intentions that supporters of the other parties, but even they are noticeably more determined in their choice than they were just a few days ago.

 

Roughly one fifth of Canadians say they might reconsider their vote intention if they thought a Tory majority seemed certain, which would probably benefit the Liberals nationally, though perhaps also the NDP in areas such as British Columbia where they are the leading alternative to the government.

 

However, the temptation to vote tactically to block a Conservative majority may wane if the polls continue to show the tightening in the race that has occurred over the last few days. Moreover some voters may drift back to the Tories if they think they are not going to win a majority.

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

 

BASE: Decided Voters	CANADA	BC	AB	SK/MB	ON	QC	ATL
n=	2314	292	119	123	791	798	191
Margin of error (+/-)=	2.0	5.7	9.0	8.8	3.5	3.5	7.1
Conservative	33	38	59	47	33	17	31
Liberal	26	20	14	20	33	21	37
NDP	19	26	15	24	20	15	22
Green	12	16	11	10	15	5	10
Bloc Québécois	10	0	0	0	0	42	0

Note - The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 7% of Canadians say they are undecided and 4% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

 

BASE: Decided Voters	CANADA	Gender		Age				Income
		M	F	<25	25-44	45-64	65	<$40K	$40-80K	$80K
n=	2314	1093	1221	182	784	922	426	743	843	728
Margin of error (/-)=	2.0	3.0	2.8	7.3	3.5	3.2	4.7	3.6	3.4	3.6
Conservative	33	38	29	21	29	36	42	32	31	36
Liberal	26	24	27	19	24	28	27	21	26	30
NDP	19	17	22	29	20	18	16	20	22	16
Green	12	12	11	18	14	9	8	14	10	11
Bloc Québécois	10	10	11	13	12	9	7	13	12	6

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

	2006 Vote	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters		Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6
Conservative	36.3	38	36	36	34	34	34	34	36	36	36	35	33
Liberal	30.2	26	26	25	25	27	25	25	24	25	25	25	26
NDP	17.5	15	19	18	20	19	20	19	19	19	18	19	19
Green	4.5	11	11	13	11	10	11	11	11	10	10	10	12
Bloc Québécois	10.5	9	8	8	10	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6
Conservative	35	35	39	44	43	38